Sunday, November 29, 2009

Imagining the Strategic impact of Dubai episode on India

The Dubai real estate crash might force Abu Dhabi to step in, but I do doubt Abu Dhabi to help without extracting its piece of flesh. Heard that Abu Dhabi is pro US while Dubai was pro Iran. If thats true, then US diplomatic pressure would force Abu Dhabi to help Dubai but in return, seek assurances that no pro Iran activities will take place from Dubai. Iran will try to counter by inviting China to join the Iran-Pak oil pipeline. Chinese energy requirements will be somewhat satiated by this, augmented as it is with pipelines from central Asian countries. Democrat controlled US will not go against China (look at Obama's statements and not to forget Hillary's hillarious comment on ignoring poor Chinese human rights record at the moment, also China has a lot of $ reserves and $-yuan value being kept fixed by China). India has already voted against a nuclear Iran, thereby distancing itself from the latter, so Iran would be perfectly justified in bringing in China.... finally India will end up loosing a lot.

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